A Temperature Based Model for Cotton Mealybug to Development, Survival and Population Growth Potential

Aims: Based on the different temperature model, analysis the cotton mealy bug growth, developmental, survival, mortality, and reproduction rate.

Place and Duration of Study: This secondary data were collected from Central Institute of Cotton Research, Coimbatore.

Methodology: In this study, we used models like the Sharpe and DeMichele model, the Wang model, the Polynomial model, the Stinner model, and the Gaussian model. To measure the goodness-of-fit criteria, the model performance has been assured using Coefficient of Determination (R2), Alkaline Information Criteria (AIC), Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), Mean Absolute error (MAE), Relative Absolute Error (RAE) and Relative Standard Error (RSE).

Result and Conclusion: From the Sharpe and Demichele and Polynomial models, male have highest R2 and least error values. From the Wang model, nymph 3 has highest R2 and least error values. When compare all models the Polynomial model have highest R2 and least error values. So it is the best fit model compare to all the models.